Winless in her last five starts, Hollys Graces does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and that second last time out shows she can compete — though an official mark of 85 and a midfield ranking give her plenty to do from stall 3.
Form last 6970-82
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR95RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Lemsaidbat has been knocking on the door, finishing second two starts back and third last time out, and she has experience over today's trip — the main risk is that she remains winless in her last five starts.
Form last 65-2523
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR105RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Subsonic shaped well for a third three starts back and scored four starts back, showing she retains ability at this trip and going; the risk is that two below-par efforts in her most recent outings leave fitness and consistency to prove.
Form last 671-387
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR103RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
A long absence of 289 days is the chief concern here, and her rating ranks her near the foot of the field; that sole recent start did end in victory, however, giving her something to build on if fitness holds.
Form last 61-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR85RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Minerva was a winner two starts back and third three starts back, and has run over this trip before; the chief concern is a 109-day absence, though she has plenty to offer if returning to peak condition.
Form last 62431-6
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
102SR98RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Moonlit Sun won two starts back and was third three starts back, showing consistency, though fourth last time out is a concern; she has run over today's trip and a 97 rating suggests ability, but 127 lb is a stiff burden to overcome.
Form last 6314
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR97RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Skydance franked her winning form with a third last time out, and a winner two starts back, arriving here fit on 18 days' rest with going experience to call on — a thoroughly live contender off 127 lb from stall six.
Form last 6265-13
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR104RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Star Performer won last time out, which counts in her favour, and she has run over today's trip and going before, but ranked last of eight on our figures and carrying 127 lb, she faces a stiff ask against stronger rivals here.
Form last 61
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR75RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lemsairbat owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/4Joseph Patrick O'BrienDylan Browne McMonagle
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Skydance
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
2/1 · W McCreery✓ Value Signal
Hollys Graces
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Henry De Bromhead◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Lemsairbat (SR 105, 9/4) is the highest-rated runner in the field and has been steamed dramatically from opening — a 27% market contraction is the strongest money signal in the race. As JP O'Brien's yard flag-bearer (stablemate Star Performer has drifted 36%), DBM takes the mount, a strong booking at a 15% strike-rate stable. The SR-105 edges Skydance (SR 112 on mark, but drifted 8%) in form quality when weighted against the market move, and the 5-2-5-2-3 form line shows consistent placing at this level. Weight parity at 9-9 versus the 3yo fillies on 9-1 means Lemsairbat receives no age allowance penalty and starts on level terms in that regard against older rivals.
Each-way alternative: Skydance.
Main danger: Skydance — Skydance (SR 112, 9/4) is the joint-shortest price and has the best SR in the field with a recent winning run (form 265-13 — won last time), and while an 8% drift is a mild concern, WJ Lee's booking at 14% career strike rate suggests connections remain confident.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Skydance holds a 7-point SR advantage (112 vs 105) and, despite an 8% drift, still matches Lemsairbat on odds at 9/4 — the superior-rated rival is not being dismissed by the market.
Lemsairbat's form line 5-2523 shows no win in this sequence; a horse that consistently places but fails to convert is a concern when a win is needed today.
52-day absence is the longest break in the field — fresher rivals (Moonlit Sun 14 days, Skydance 18 days) have recent racecourse sharpness that Lemsairbat may lack.
The 3yo fillies (Skydance, Minerva, Moonlit Sun) carry 9-1 versus Lemsairbat's 9-9, a 8lb weight advantage that partially offsets Lemsairbat's experience edge and SR lead.
ShortlistLemsairbat, Skydance, Minerva, Moonlit Sun