← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Newly Weds Sara & Nigel Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
Mr Fox’s call
Phlox
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Phlox (SR:154, 3/1) is the strongest value proposition in this field. The market move of 18% inward is a compelling signal that informed money is landing on this filly, and JP Murtagh's yard (11% strike rate from 654 runners) is a credible operation for producing well-prepared maidens. Her form of 5-6 (rightmost last run) shows she has been competitive without winning, consistent with a filly building toward her moment. Crucially, Sea Of The Celts is the SR leader at 155 but carries a significant red flag: a 19% drift in the market from a Twomey yard that typically knows its horses' readiness — when a 6/5 favourite drifts, connections are telling you something. Phlox's SR is effectively equivalent to Sea Of The Celts once the market adjustment is factored, and at 3/1 she represents a far superior risk-reward profile. Each-way alternative: Mawhibah. Main danger: Sea Of The Celts — Sea Of The Celts holds the highest SR in the field at 155 and is trained by Twomey (24% strike rate from 234 runners, an elite figure), meaning even a debut runner from this yard commands respect — if the drift is merely tactical or market noise rather than a readiness concern, she is capable of winning on raw ability alone.
Full result
Winner: U S Navy Spearhead (IRE) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
U S Navy Spearhead 33/1
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2
Mawhibah Fox #3 13/8
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3
Essential Comedy 16/1
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4
Phlox Fox #1 11/4
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5
Express Choise 16/1
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6
Sea Of The Celts Fox #2 2/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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