WTW Willis Handicap

19:15 Roscommon Tue 18 Aug 2026 7f111y Good 18 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Earls

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 22%

7TH

Mr Fox says

Earls (SR:85, 5/1, 9-12) is the standout shortlist pick once the weight-adjusted SR landscape is considered. A 15% market move in — meaningful in an 18-runner handicap — signals informed money, and the form string 002223 shows consistent competitive proximity at this level. Gavin Cromwell (9% strike rate across 1,374 runners) is a high-volume operator who rarely runs a horse without a plan, and the tongue-tie/blinker combination suggests connections are pressing for the win. The concern is DistFit:- at 7f111y, but the GoingFit:~ is manageable on good ground and at 5/1 the market is clearly prepared to overlook the trip query in favour of the live market move. Each-way alternative: Cool Azul. Main danger: Cool Azul — Cool Azul (SR:86, 5/1, 9-6) is the highest-rated runner in the field, carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-6, and the recent 22371 form line shows a win last time out — A Oliver at 12% strike rate with W J Lee booked is a serious combination, and despite the 10% drift the raw ability edge is real.

Verify· #13020

Full result

Winner: Sagasti (IRE) at SP 28/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.