Engines On showed he can win at this level when scoring four starts back, but three unplaced efforts since then cast doubt on whether he has recaptured that form; 65 days off adds further uncertainty, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 631-000
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR82RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Ranked well down the field on our figures, Summer Island faces a stiff task from stall 17 carrying 139 lb, and that fifth last time out does little to inspire confidence; the saving graces are his experience over today's trip and going, and a winner twice in his last six starts.
Form last 6631215
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR76RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts, Earls has been consistently close — second three of his last four completed efforts and third last time out — and he has experience over today's trip and conditions, but at 138 lb from stall 3, he faces a stiff ask to finally go one better.
Form last 6002223
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
85SR81RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Spodo Komodo showed his quality with a win and a runner-up finish in recent starts, but two unplaced efforts either side temper enthusiasm; he has run over today's trip and going, and drops in at 138 lb from stall 11 on a handy 15-day turnaround.
Form last 631-020
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR80RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 14 of 18 on our figures, Tokyo Treasure looks a tough proposition here, though he is at least fit from a run 11 days ago, has run over today's trip and going before, and his second last time out offers a crumb of hope.
Form last 6838-72
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR75RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Dragon Of Malta at least arrives on a quick turnaround of 21 days and has run over today's trip and going before, but modest recent efforts and 135 lb from stall eight leave him with plenty to find against 17 rivals.
Form last 60-8045
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
63SR80RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last six starts, Mehman at least showed some consistency with a second and third in that sequence, though he has been unplaced in his two most recent outings; he has run over today's trip and going before, but a rating of 79 leaves him with ground to make up from stall five carrying 135 lb.
Form last 6292300
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR79RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Red Hugh O'Donnell finished eighth last time out and has been largely inconsistent in recent starts, winning one from his last five, and our rating ranks him near the foot of the field; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 21 days since his last run suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 6-08148
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR69RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Thenandnow shaped with promise when third two starts back and has experience of today's distance and going in her favour, but she needs to bounce back from a fifth last time out carrying a hefty 133 lb from stall 13.
Form last 6-15035
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR82RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Cool Azul arrives on the back of a win last time out and has experience of today's going, with our rating of 85 marking him out as the top-ranked runner in the field; the main concern is a 38-day absence that leaves fitness a question mark.
Form last 622371
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
86SR85RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked well adrift of the field on our figures, Dolly Hello faces a stiff task from stall 14 carrying 132 lb, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a manageable 35-day break.
Form last 67345-3
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR72RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Contrary To Law won two starts back and returns here on a 27-day break in good heart, with experience over today's trip and conditions working in his favour; the 131 lb burden and draw 18 are the questions, but his recent winning form makes him our pick.
Form last 64-6714
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
82SR80RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Perfect Base does at least have experience of today's distance and going, and a draw of two could be relevant; however, 61 days off the track and a tricky recent record — including a disqualification — leave questions to answer at 130 lb.
Form last 6203D-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR78RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Venetian Star returns after 40 days off winless in his last six starts, with two unplaced efforts sandwiching a second two starts back offering some encouragement, though his ranking of 12 of 18 and 128 lb from stall 15 suggest he faces a stiff task here.
Form last 6433020
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR77RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, Sagasti is hard to fancy, though a second two starts back and experience over today's trip and going offer slim encouragement from stall ten off 126 lb.
Form last 6-63020
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR71RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed second last time out and fourth two starts back, Mercurial has shown enough consistency to be of interest from stall one, though a return from 79 days off and a winless recent run of form give pause for thought at 130 lb.
Form last 6429-42
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR79RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Java Wood has finished seventh last time out and unplaced two starts back, and with our figures ranking him last of 18 runners, he is hard to fancy despite the experience over today's distance and going.
Form last 6401307
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR67RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Flaming Rib catches the eye on our ratings, ranked second of eighteen in the field, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions, returning after a sharp 15-day break; the risk is that he has been winless in his last five starts, including two poor efforts at the foot of the field.
Form last 60-5487
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
52SR84RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Contrary To Law owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1J P MurtaghBen Coen
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Cool Azul
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · A Oliver✓ Value Signal
Mehman
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · P J F Murphy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Earls (SR:85, 5/1, 9-12) is the standout shortlist pick once the weight-adjusted SR landscape is considered. A 15% market move in — meaningful in an 18-runner handicap — signals informed money, and the form string 002223 shows consistent competitive proximity at this level. Gavin Cromwell (9% strike rate across 1,374 runners) is a high-volume operator who rarely runs a horse without a plan, and the tongue-tie/blinker combination suggests connections are pressing for the win. The concern is DistFit:- at 7f111y, but the GoingFit:~ is manageable on good ground and at 5/1 the market is clearly prepared to overlook the trip query in favour of the live market move.
Each-way alternative: Cool Azul.
Main danger: Cool Azul — Cool Azul (SR:86, 5/1, 9-6) is the highest-rated runner in the field, carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-6, and the recent 22371 form line shows a win last time out — A Oliver at 12% strike rate with W J Lee booked is a serious combination, and despite the 10% drift the raw ability edge is real.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Earls is 9 years old with a form string of 002223 — six consecutive runs without a win, suggesting he finds consistent ways to finish second or third without converting, a concerning pattern in an 18…
DistFit:- at 7f111y is a flagged concern; at age 9 with no recent evidence of staying this trip, asking him to excel at an unproven distance is a material risk.
Cool Azul (SR:86, 5/1) is a 3yo carrying 9-6 with a recent win (form 22371) and higher raw SR than Earls, representing a sharper, improving rival at identical odds with better age profile and recency…
Summer Island (SR:84, 5/1) has won more recently, carries just 1lb more, and is trained by a yard firing at 9% with DBM (15% strike rate) in the saddle — Earls' jockey Gary Carroll sits at 9%, a mean…
ShortlistEarls, Cool Azul, Summer Island, Contrary To Law