← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ian Carnaby 30 Years Of Sponsorship Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Crimson Road
MEDIUM Advised 11/4 SP 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Crimson Road (SR 72, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in this Class 6 field by a clear margin and arrives in career-best form with a recent -59411 string — back-to-back wins culminating in a last-time-out success just 15 days ago. Crucially, both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm this horse is proven at today's trip and on good-to-firm ground specifically, a double-confirmation that separates it from every rival. Dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) off a mark only 4lb higher than the last win (MarkMv:+4) is a very manageable rise, and William Carson (8% career SR, 565 runners of experience) is a competent pilot who knows Brighton's tricky undulations. The main concern is that the market is not shouting — 11/4 is fair rather than a steamer — but with the SR ceiling, proven conditions and class drop all aligned, this is the standout. Each-way alternative: Bobacious. Main danger: Bobacious — Bobacious (SR 67, 4/1) has won last time out (-34651 rightmost = 1), carries the same weight as Crimson Road, has DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ on exactly today's conditions, is dropping a class, and has steamed in 13% in the market — a combination of signals that makes it the most credible threat to the selection.
Full result
Winner: Crimson Road (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Liberate 9/2
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1
Crimson Road Fox #1 3/1
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3
Bohemian Breeze Fox #4 7/1
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4
Bownder Fox #3 8/1
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5
It's Life 7/2
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6
Star Mind 25/1
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7
Bobacious Fox #2 7/2
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Twilight Guest 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3
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4