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Mr Fox’s call
Hostelry
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Hostelry (SR:61, 4/1) shares the joint-highest SR in the field with Misemerald but carries 8lb more favourably at 9-8 versus Misemerald's 9-1 — actually very close in weight, but Hostelry's recent form string 555451 shows consistent competitiveness culminating in a last-time-out win just 14 days ago at the same class level. Ruth Carr's 11% strike rate with Joanna Mason (11%) is a reliable combination, and the visor has been worn before indicating a settled headgear regime. The drift of 15% in the market is a concern and must be acknowledged, but at 4/1 in a Class 6 field with the best recent form line and a proven last-time-out win, the market may simply be reacting to the age (9) and modest GoingFit:~ rather than any substantive negative. Misemerald drifted harder (16%) and has confirmed DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags that genuinely undermine its chance today. Each-way alternative: Approaching Dawn. Main danger: Misemerald — Misemerald shares SR:61 with Hostelry, sits on the lightest competitive weight at 9-1, and has three places at this course (Course:W0P3), though the DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are genuine concerns that explain the 16% drift.
Full result
Winner: Misemerald (IRE) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Misemerald Fox #2 7/2
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2
Abu Royal 12/1
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3
Thats My Boy Luke Fox #4 13/2
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4
Jewel Maker 14/1
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5
Approaching Dawn Fox #3 9/2
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6
Hostelry Fox #1 4/1
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7
Bantz 25/1
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8
Due Respect 11/2
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9
Joshuas Dream 12/1
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10
Caledonian Dream 50/1
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11
Serengeti Sunrise 25/1
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12
Elizabeth Bay 16/1
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13
Sievier 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Hostelry 4/1 6TH
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2
Misemerald 3/1 SP 3/1F 🏆 WON
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3
Approaching Dawn 11/2 5TH
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4
Thats My Boy Luke 13/2 🥉 3RD