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Holden Plant Rentals Apprentice Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Coincidental Glory
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 Est. 18%
Mr Fox says
Coincidental Glory (SR:67, 6/1, 9-5) is the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Naoi, but carries 9 lbs less than Naoi (10-0) — a meaningful weight advantage in a 21-runner apprentice handicap on good ground. The market has shortened 13% since opening, which in a wide-open field of this nature is a meaningful signal that connections are confident. Adrian McGuinness's yard has three runners, and Coincidental Glory draws the strongest apprentice booking (Reese Holohan, 11% strike rate from 156 rides) — clearly the yard's number one ahead of Flaming Rib and I'm Spartacus, both of whom are drifting heavily. The 3-year-old's recent form of 463294 shows consistency without a win but the step down in weight relative to rivals and the market move make this the most compelling case. Each-way alternative: Naoi. Main danger: Naoi — Naoi (SR:69, 5/1, 10-0) is the joint-top rated horse and has a recent last-time-out win (Form:3338-1) at today's trip with DistFit:+ confirmed, giving it the strongest raw ability and proven distance form, albeit carrying more weight and with a slight market drift of 6%.
Full result
Winner: Apothic Red (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Apothic Red 14/1
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2
Simmering Seas 9/1
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3
Gerrit's Gem 18/1
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4
Another Nice'day 20/1
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5
Tawaazon Fox #4 7/1
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6
Poweracclaim Fox #3 15/2
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7
Flaming Rib 20/1
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8
Dervo Annie 8/1
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9
Naoi Fox #2 13/2
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10
Top Biller 50/1
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11
Rosato 5/1
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12
Fontaine Khaled 25/1
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13
Coincidental Glory Fox #1 13/2
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14
Caffu Zafeen 11/1
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15
Call The Cavalry 50/1
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16
Strikepoint 25/1
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17
Pure Valour 66/1
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18
Lethimfly 50/1
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19
I'm Spartacus 20/1
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Faoladh 20/1
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Four Blondes -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Coincidental Glory 6/1 13TH
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2
Naoi 5/1 9TH
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3
Poweracclaim 6/1 6TH
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4
Tawaazon 13/2 5TH