← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Abergwaun Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Kendall Roy
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Kendall Roy (SR 105, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and has attracted significant market confidence — a 15% inward move to 9/2 is meaningful money in a 10-runner Listed sprint. The form string 001936 is messy but the distance fit is moderate and the going is unproven (GoingFit:?) rather than negative, and the step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is offset by carrying just 9-10, giving a weight edge over Brussels (9-5) and Erosandpsyche (9-7). Trainer McGivern has a respectable 15% strike rate from a small yard and the Chris Hayes booking at 11% career SR is solid at this level. The market move is the clinching signal here — smart money coming for the SR leader at a workable price. Each-way alternative: Likedbymike. Main danger: Likedbymike — Likedbymike (SR 101, 11/2) has steamed 17% into the market, carries a light 9-2, has a confirmed GoingFit:~ on today's good ground, and the Colin Keane booking (16% career strike rate, 1,060 runners) is the strongest jockey signal in the field — a horse returning to the same mark as its last win with top-tier tactical riding is a genuine threat.
Full result
Winner: Likedbymike (IRE) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Likedbymike Fox #2 11/4
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2
Erosandpsyche 9/2
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3
Focaccia 28/1
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4
Gazelle d'Or 9/2
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5
Cardiff By The Sea 33/1
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6
Sarahmae 15/2
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7
Xerling 8/1
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8
Kendall Roy Fox #1 10/3
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—
Brussels Fox #4 7/2
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—
Rosie Frith Fox #3 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Kendall Roy 9/2 8TH
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2
Likedbymike 11/2 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Rosie Frith 7/1
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4
Brussels 7/2