← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
DragonBet Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Ghost Story
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ghost Story (SR:73, 5/2, Wgt:9-9) is the class leader in this modest Class 6 field and arrives dropping down a tier (ClassMv:↓1), which is a meaningful advantage. The 17% market support — steaming in from what would have been around 3/1 — signals informed confidence, and John Butler's 15% yard strike rate is the best among the trainers represented. The form string 3-3343 shows consistent placing without quite winning, but the class drop combined with proven distance fitness (DistFit:+) and a career-best SR suggests this is the assignment to break that duck. Running off a mark 4lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+4) is a modest concern but is outweighed by the class concession from rivals. Each-way alternative: Liberate. Main danger: Liberate — Liberate (SR:69, 10/3, Wgt:10-0) has proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), ran just 7 days ago suggesting peak condition, and the Jim & Suzi Best yard's booking of Ashley Lewis — a 16% strike-rate jockey — on a horse running at the same class and mark as its last outing points to quiet confidence that this consistent runner can go one better.
Full result
Winner: Zambezi Magic (GB) at SP 20/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Zambezi Magic 14/1
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2
Meet Me In Meraki Fox #3 7/2
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3
Staywitherjohnny 11/4
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4
Ghost Story Fox #1 2/1
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5
Liberate Fox #2 7/2
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Stipulation 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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3