Winter Ladies Evening Sat 28th November Handicap Stakes

14:42 Southwell (AW) Mon 31 Aug 2026 1m3f23y Class 5 Good 8 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Bearwith

SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Bearwith (SR:76, 4/1, Wgt:9-11) is the joint-highest rated horse in the field alongside Faeberon and Saxophonist, and crucially carries a lighter weight than Everyoneknowsadave (10-2) while showing a market move of in29% — the strongest sustained market support in the race. Trainer Harriet Bethell runs at a solid 16% strike rate from 89 runners, and the form string 244912 shows a recent second (rightmost digit) indicating a return to competitive form after a poor run. The MarkMv:+5 is a mild concern, but the class level (=) and lighter weight give Bearwith a real structural advantage over rivals who are also going up in mark. GoingFit:- is the key risk on today's Good ground, but the market is clearly comfortable backing this horse despite that flag. Each-way alternative: Golspie. Main danger: Faeberon — Faeberon (SR:80, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and trained by the high-strike-rate Simon & Ed Crisford yard (20%), meaning on pure ability it has the clearest ceiling — the drift of 12% and the DistFit:? query are the only reasons it doesn't lead the analysis.

Verify· #15213

Full result

Winner: Pace Attack (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Pace Attack Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Luke Morris 6/1
2 Everyoneknowsadave Jessica Macey · Liam Wright(3) 9/1
3 Golspie Fox #3 Patrick Morris · Billy Loughnane 7/2
4 Faeberon Fox #2 Simon & Ed Crisford · Jack Mitchell 13/8
5 Bearwith Fox #1 Harriet Bethell · Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) 9/2
6 New Bay Star Michael Appleby · Alistair Rawlinson 12/1
7 Carwyn Patrick Morris · Barry McHugh 80/1
— Saxophonist Fox #4 David O'Meara · Conor Whiteley(5) 4/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Bearwith 4/1 5TH
2 Faeberon 11/4 🏁 4TH
3 Golspie 9/2 🥉 3RD
4 Saxophonist 5/1