Southwell (AW) 14:42 RESULTED
Class 5 31 Aug 2026

Monday 31 August Winter Ladies Evening Sat 28th November Handicap Stakes

Winter Ladies Evening Sat 28th November Handicap Stakes · 1m3f23y

Official Result

Winter Ladies Evening Sat 28th November Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Pace Attack (IRE) Luke Morris · Sir Mark Prescott Bt
    9/1
  2. 9/1
  3. 6/1
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Southwell (AW)

13:32–17:35 · 8 races

Chepstow

13:45–17:45 · 8 races

Epsom

13:50–17:15 · 7 races

Ripon

13:55–17:50 · 8 races

Downpatrick

14:12–17:39 · 7 races

Cartmel

14:35–17:30 · 6 races

Roscommon

16:50–19:55 · 7 races

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Settled
  • 8 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Everyoneknowsadave silks
Everyoneknowsadave
Age 4 · 10-2
643214
75
67
77
4
10-2
9/1 FCST 8/1
Everyoneknowsadave catches the eye on the strength of a win two starts back and a placed effort three starts back, and he has experience over today's trip and going; the concern is that fourth last time out suggests he needs to bounce back to his best.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Bearwith silks
Bearwith
Age 8 · 9-11
244912
70
76
76
8
9-11
9/2 4/1 7/2
Bearwith shaped well when runner-up last time out and landed a win two starts back, and he has experience over today's trip and going to call on; the risk is that ninth three starts back hints at some inconsistency to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Faeberon silks
Faeberon
Age 3 · 9-6
4-8313
73
80
80
3
9-6
13/8 2/1 18/13
Faeberon returns after 23 days in good heart, a winner two starts back and third last time out, and he has experience of both today's trip and going. Carrying 132 lb from stall one, his rating of 80 marks him as the one to beat in this field of eight.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Saxophonist silks
Saxophonist
Age 3 · 9-5
-33522
72
76
76
3
9-5
4/1 FCST 7/2
Saxophonist has been a model of consistency, finishing second twice in his last two starts and placing in four of his last five, and he has run over today's trip and going before, making him a genuine danger at 131 lb; the concern is that he remains winless in recent starts and may find one too good again.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
New Bay Star silks
New Bay Star
Age 3 · 9-5
42-320
72
64
72
3
9-5
12/1 6/1 9/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, New Bay Star makes for a tough sell despite the experience over today's trip and going; the recent unplaced effort after consecutive placed runs is a concern, and 131 lb is no help.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Golspie silks
Golspie
Age 6 · 9-3
344363
62
71
74
6
9-3
7/2 6/1 11/4
Consistent without being a winner, Golspie has finished third three times in recent starts yet remains winless, and while he has run over today's trip and going before, a career-high 129 lb from stall five is a stiff ask for a gelding rated 62 officially.
AI verdict

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Pace Attack silks
Pace Attack
Age 3 · 9-0
7604
67
66
72
3
9-0
6/1 7/2 6/1
Winless in his last four starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Pace Attack is hard to fancy despite the fitness edge of a 14-day turnaround, some going experience, and a handy draw at stall two.
AI verdict

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Carwyn silks
Carwyn
Age 3 · 8-7
9-8990
60
46
73
3
8-7
80/1 50/1 66/1
Winless in his last five starts, Carwyn at least has experience of today's trip and conditions, and 35 days between runs gives connections time to find a spark; however, a sequence of unplaced efforts makes him a difficult case to enthuse about from stall eight off 119 lb.
AI verdict

SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Everyoneknowsadave 9/1 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 8/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 Bet365
2 Bearwith 9/2 open 8.00 4/1 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.50 7/2 open 7.50 4/1 open 7.50 4/1 9/2 Bet365
3 Faeberon 13/8 open 3.00 6/4 open 3.25 11/8 open 3.00 11/8 open 3.00 13/8 open 3.25 6/4 open 3.50 13/8 Bet365
4 Saxophonist 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 4/1 9/2 open 4.50 7/2 open 5.50 9/2 William Hill
5 New Bay Star 12/1 open 9.50 14/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 9.50 14/1 Paddy Power
6 Golspie 7/2 open 7.00 10/3 open 7.00 11/4 open 7.00 11/4 open 7.00 3/1 open 7.00 10/3 open 7.00 7/2 Bet365
7 Pace Attack 6/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 4.50 7/1 Paddy Power
8 Carwyn 80/1 open 67.00 66/1 open 51.00 66/1 66/1 66/1 66/1 open 51.00 80/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Faeberon

Speculative

Faeberon owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

13/8 Simon & Ed Crisford Jack Mitchell
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Saxophonist

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · David O'Meara
✓ Value Signal

Carwyn

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

80/1 · Patrick Morris
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
93 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Faeberon
53.3 13/8
2 4. Saxophonist
52.1 4/1
3 2. Bearwith
51.6 9/2
4 6. Golspie
51.6 7/2
5 7. Pace Attack
48.0 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Bearwith
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 3 · 9-6
13/8
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 6 · 9-3
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 3 · 9-5
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 8 · 9-11
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-0
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 10-2
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-5
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Bearwith
Confidence: Speculative

Bearwith (SR:76, 4/1, Wgt:9-11) is the joint-highest rated horse in the field alongside Faeberon and Saxophonist, and crucially carries a lighter weight than Everyoneknowsadave (10-2) while showing a market move of in29% — the strongest sustained market support in the race. Trainer Harriet Bethell runs at a solid 16% strike rate from 89 runners, and the form string 244912 shows a recent second (rightmost digit) indicating a return to competitive form after a poor run. The MarkMv:+5 is a mild concern, but the class level (=) and lighter weight give Bearwith a real structural advantage over rivals who are also going up in mark. GoingFit:- is the key risk on today's Good ground, but the market is clearly comfortable backing this horse despite that flag. Each-way alternative: Golspie. Main danger: Faeberon — Faeberon (SR:80, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and trained by the high-strike-rate Simon & Ed Crisford yard (20%), meaning on pure ability it has the clearest ceiling — the drift of 12% and the DistFit:? query are the only reasons it doesn't lead the analysis.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit:- flag is a concrete red flag — Southwell AW Fibresand is a very specific surface and Bearwith's record suggests a going/surface mismatch that the market may be underweighting.
  • Form string 244912 contains a '1' in second-to-last position but ends in '2' — the penultimate run was a win, then regressed; the recent second may simply mask a declining trajectory for an 8-year-ol…
  • Jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall (5lb claimer) strikes at only 9% from 162 rides — significantly weaker than rivals Jack Mitchell (13%) on Faeberon and Billy Loughnane (19%) on Golspie, both of whom are rid…
  • Golspie carries 8lb less weight (9-3 vs 9-11), has stronger jockey stats, an equal or better recent market move (in31%), and a stable form indicator — making the weight-based structural argument for…
Shortlist Bearwith, Faeberon, Golspie, Saxophonist
Each-way: Golspie Danger: Faeberon

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m3f23y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade