Elphin Handicap

17:25 Roscommon Mon 31 Aug 2026 0m7f94y Good 18 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Givehertilxmas

SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 22%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Givehertilxmas carries the joint-top weight of 10-2 but holds the highest SR in the field at 56 (joint with Bullet Bourbon), and crucially has Colin Keane in the saddle — a 16% strike-rate jockey on 1,065 career rides, clearly the yard's number-one booking over stablemate La Campanella who gets James Ryan at 5%. At 4/1 the market is marginally the shortest in the field, suggesting some confidence. The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are concerns, but in a field of 18 where nobody posts strong fitness signals and the top SR is only 56, the Colin Keane booking and market position tip the balance — in a low-quality handicap like this, jockey calibre and market intelligence carry outsized weight. Each-way alternative: Bullet Bourbon. Main danger: Bullet Bourbon — Bullet Bourbon matches Givehertilxmas on SR:56 but carries 1-6 less weight at 8-10, has a MarkMv:-7 (running off a mark 7lb below last win) and GoingFit:~ suggesting some tolerance for today's conditions — the weight relief and lower mark make it a genuine each-way threat at 7/1.

Verify· #15325

Full result

Winner: Phoenix Pairc (IRE) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.