← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Tattie Bogle
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 9/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Tattie Bogle (SR 77, 11/4) combines the second-highest SR in the field with a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground — the only runner with that credential — and drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) into a competitive but winnable Class 5. The market has backed this view emphatically, shortening 31% from the opening price, which is a significant steamer in a six-runner field and suggests strong stable confidence. Marco Ghiani (14% strike rate, 917 career rides) is a booking that upgrades confidence, and at 9-13 the weight is manageable. The MarkMv:+5 is a mild concern but offset by the class drop and the going advantage that no other runner in the field can match. Each-way alternative: Shaw Park. Main danger: Serenity Dream — Serenity Dream (SR 81, 7/4) holds the highest SR in the field by four points and has strong recent form (856211 — two consecutive wins) with course form (W1P1 at Brighton), and while GoingFit:- and the 5% drift are concerns, raw ability and course familiarity make it the most dangerous rival.
Full result
Winner: Tattie Bogle (GB) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tattie Bogle Fox #1 13/8
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2
Serenity Dream Fox #2 4/1
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3
Shaw Park Fox #3 11/4
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4
Dion Baker 5/1
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5
Fai Fai 50/1
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6
Station Bar 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3