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Mr Fox’s call
La Peregrina
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
La Peregrina (SR 88, 13/8) is the highest-rated runner in the field and has shown a clear progressive form sequence — 550221 — culminating in a win last time out at the same class, carrying just 9-7 against a field where the top two weights are both on 9-12. Tom Marquand is a quality booking (13% strike rate over 1,184 runners), and the market has shortened 8% since opening, suggesting informed money. DistFit:+ confirms she handles this 1m5f trip, and while GoingFit is only moderate (~), Lingfield AW good is a benign surface for a horse with form at the distance. The 5lb weight advantage over Hope Rising and Percy Jones is meaningful, and her SR edge over the entire field is clear. Each-way alternative: St Hilda. Main danger: Hope Rising — Despite the drift and class rise, Hope Rising's recent 4111 form sequence shows genuine momentum and Jamie Snowden runs at a 25% strike rate, meaning if the market move is noise rather than information, this horse has the recent winning habit to reverse the verdict.
Full result
Winner: Hope Rising (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Hope Rising Fox #2 5/2
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2
Percy Jones 14/1
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3
La Peregrina Fox #1 6/5
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4
St Hilda Fox #3 9/2
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5
Celestarak 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3