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Christmas Parties At Newcastle Racecourse Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Secret Rival
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Secret Rival (SR:59, 4/1) shares the highest SR in the field alongside River Jordan but carries the same weight (9-8) with a market that has shortened 12% — money coming in on a horse managed by Ed Walker (15% strike rate, 876 runners) with experienced jockey Kieran Shoemark aboard. The drop of one class (ClassMv:↓1) from a yard that places horses carefully adds further appeal. Form of 8677 may look modest but in a Class 6 nursery where the entire field shows DistFit:- and GoingFit:?, relative SR and market confidence become the primary differentiators, and Secret Rival wins both those battles. Each-way alternative: River Jordan. Main danger: River Jordan — River Jordan matches Secret Rival on SR:59, drops two classes (ClassMv:↓2), has lighter weight at 9-6, carries Jason Hart (14% strike rate, 1,364 career rides) and has shortened 10% in the market, making it the Phillip Makin yard's obvious number-one runner over stablemate Liveadream.
Full result
Winner: Bladey Lady (IRE) at SP 28/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bladey Lady 18/1
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2
Claret Time 13/2
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3
Yorkshire Dream Fox #4 10/1
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4
Eevee Star 12/1
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5
Secret Rival Fox #1 4/1
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6
River Jordan Fox #2 9/2
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7
Liveadream 11/1
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8
Waiting For Archie 12/1
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9
Kaiulani Spirit 28/1
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10
Profitability Fox #3 9/2
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11
Johns Power 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Secret Rival 4/1 5TH
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2
River Jordan 5/1 6TH
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3
Profitability 4/1 10TH
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4
Yorkshire Dream 11/1 🥉 3RD