← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Barleybrown
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Barleybrown (SR 63, 2/1) is the clear class leader in this modest Class 6 field and has steamed 22% in the market — the strongest market move in the race by some distance — indicating confident support. While DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are genuine concerns, at 1m5y on Newcastle AW the course form (W0P2) shows familiarity with the track, and the SR 63 superiority over the next-best rivals (Here Comes Louie SR 60, Itszaboy SR 55) is meaningful in a field this weak. Joanna Mason (11% strike rate, 671 runners) is a reliable claimer booking for Ruth Carr who hits at 10% overall, and the combination of market conviction plus SR leadership tilts the verdict despite the going/distance flags. The each-way alternative is Here Comes Louie. Each-way alternative: Here Comes Louie. Main danger: Here Comes Louie — Here Comes Louie (SR 60, 9/2) is the closest SR rival at just 3 points behind Barleybrown, is ridden by Conor Whiteley who strikes at an impressive 18% from 140 rides, and a DistFit:~ suggests some capability at the trip — if Barleybrown's poor distance and going flags materialise, this Roger Fell runner is best placed to capitalise.
Full result
Winner: Walk On Walk On (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Walk On Walk On 8/1
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2
Barleybrown Fox #1 2/1
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3
Here Comes Louie Fox #2 9/2
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4
Lady Delila 7/1
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5
Itszaboy Fox #3 5/1
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6
The Floors Munky 100/1
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7
Thunder Rush 25/1
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8
Defence Missile Fox #4 9/2
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9
Soham's Roger 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Barleybrown 2/1 🥈 2ND
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2
Here Comes Louie 9/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Itszaboy 4/1 5TH
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4
Defence Missile 6/1 8TH