← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ebf Novice Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Burning Up
MEDIUM Advised 1/2 SP 4/9F Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Burning Up (SR 158, 1/2) is the standout on every meaningful signal. The SR of 158 is a full 8 points clear of second-ranked Austin (SR 150) and 15+ points ahead of the rest — a margin that reflects genuine superiority at this class level. Crucially, it has already won at Haydock (Course:W1P1) and carries experience from a winning debut (Form:1), while the majority of rivals are debutants. The market has shortened 12% from opening, confirming professional confidence, and K.R. Burke at 19% strike rate with Clifford Lee aboard is a capable partnership. The 9-9 weight versus 9-2 for all rivals is a 7lb concession but the SR gap more than absorbs it, and soft going on a fresh September card shouldn't trouble a horse already proven in winning form. Each-way alternative: Austin. Main danger: Austin — Austin (SR 150, 13/2) is a debutant steaming in 15% from opening with Kevin Ryan — who regularly debuts well-touted juveniles — and the SR of 150 is the only figure in the field that could realistically challenge Burning Up if the market move reflects a strong home gallop.
Full result
Winner: Burning Up (GB) at SP 4/9F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Burning Up Fox #1 2/5
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2
Hands To Yourself Fox #4 16/1
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3
Under Arrest Fox #3 12/1
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4
Zarak Crown 16/1
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5
Dancing Dunes 12/1
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6
Sir Terry Hadley 28/1
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7
Bedford Benny Boy 40/1
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8
Austin Fox #2 8/1
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9
Tidal Force 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Burning Up 1/2 SP 4/9F 🏆 WON
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2
Austin 13/2 8TH
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3
Under Arrest 12/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Hands To Yourself 14/1 🥈 2ND