← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jackie Harbridge In Loving Memory Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Reflect On Glory
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Reflect On Glory (SR:89, 2/1) is the standout on market signals: a 16% market move in from its opening price is the strongest steaming signal in the field, and K.R. Burke's 19% career strike rate is comfortably the best trainer figure among the seven. The form reads 31 — a third followed by a win — showing the horse is in the right direction and recently race-fit at just 31 days since last run. While the SR of 89 is below the headline figures of Maliqui (141) and All I Know (143), those two have drifted sharply — 41% and 17% out respectively — on the back of single fifth-place runs, which strips away their credibility despite the higher ability scores. Flying Pirate at 11/10 is the chief concern but is dropping two classes and returning from 65 days off with blinkers removed (HG:p — presumably previously wore headgear now stripped), and the modest 5% market move is far less persuasive than Reflect On Glory's 16% move. Each-way alternative: Flying Pirate. Main danger: Flying Pirate — Flying Pirate (SR:92, 11/10) is the favourite, carries a class drop of two tiers, and showed a win in its most recent start (form: 13, rightmost = 3, then 1 — wait, form right-to-left means last run is '3' — actually form 13 right-to-left means last run was 1st, prior was 3rd), so Flying Pirate won last time out and is dropping two classes, which is a potent combination even if the market move is a more modest 5%.
Full result
Winner: Flying Pirate (IRE) at SP 5/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Flying Pirate Fox #2 5/4
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2
Maliqui 17/2
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3
Perfect Gal 22/1
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4
All I Know Fox #3 8/1
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5
Reflect On Glory Fox #1 2/1
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6
Frankie Power 22/1
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7
Lopefernza 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3