← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Admiral Winning Line Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Mwafaq
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Mwafaq (SR:88, 9/4) is the class leader in this field by a clear margin and the market has backed that up with a 14% shortening — money has come for a reason. Dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) off a mark that's risen only 6lb since his last win, he carries a manageable 9-7 with a recent run just 12 days ago confirming freshness rather than staleness. The DistFit:? is a mild concern over this trip but GoingFit:~ on good going is workable, and the class drop from the Fahey yard — a shrewd operation with 10% strike rate over 506 runners — strongly suggests this is a deliberate placement for a win. The addition of headgear (p) further signals connections are pushing a button for today. Each-way alternative: Junkyard Dog. Main danger: Junkyard Dog — Junkyard Dog (SR:81, 4/1) carries the lightest weight of any realistic contender at 9-2, boasts confirmed distance (DistFit:+) and going (GoingFit:+) credentials, and his last-run win in the form string shows he arrives in form — the class rise (ClassMv:↑1) is the only genuine concern, but the weight advantage over Mwafaq (5lb) on good ground at a trip he's proven over makes him the most dangerous opponent.
Full result
Winner: Qitaal (GB) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Qitaal Fox #4 7/2
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2
Mao Shang Wong 9/1
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3
Amidst The Chaos 13/2
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4
Junkyard Dog Fox #2 5/1
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5
Finlaggan 6/1
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6
Shimmering Sands Fox #3 9/1
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7
Mwafaq Fox #1 11/4
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8
Rodoya 33/1
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9
Livonian 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3
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4