← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Lester Aldridge Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Zgharta
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 SP 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Zgharta (SR:88, 10/3) has steamed in 28% in the market — the most significant market move in the field — pairing Andrew Balding (19% career strike rate, 1512 runners) with Oisin Murphy (21%, 1385 runners), comfortably the strongest connections on show. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) onto a mark it should be competitive from, carrying a workable 10-0, and crucially holding a DistFit:+ flag — the only runner confirmed effective at this 1m1f+ trip — on a stamina-testing Salisbury track that stretches out staying types. The recent form string 0-6047 looks untidy but the class relief and market confidence suggest connections have targeted this race deliberately, and the Balding-Murphy axis at this kind of Class 4 heat has a strong conversion record. Each-way alternative: Aleatrix. Main danger: Chapter — Chapter (SR:89, 17/2) has steamed in 19%, holds course form (W1P1 at Salisbury), and the first-time blinkers (HG:b) from Charles Hills suggest a yard-intended bounce — those signals in combination make it a live each-way threat despite a 5lb higher mark than last win.
Full result
Winner: Zgharta (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Zgharta Fox #1 9/4
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2
Redbud Sixteen 17/2
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3
Chapter Fox #3 10/1
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4
Leonardo Blu 7/1
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5
Aleatrix Fox #2 3/1
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6
Kamaway 6/1
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7
Lucky Camino 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Zgharta 10/3 SP 11/4 🏆 WON
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2
Aleatrix 11/4 5TH
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3
Chapter 17/2 🥉 3RD