← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Grand Pier
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Grand Pier (SR:79, 5/2) holds the highest SR in the field and arrives on the back of a last-time-out win (form reads 4-0621, rightmost = 1), with the market gently shortening 6% to confirm stable confidence. At 8-13 he carries the joint-lightest weight, giving him a meaningful lbs advantage over Much (9-8) and Roker Roar (9-9) despite a narrow SR edge — the combination of top SR plus bottom weight is the strongest structural edge in this field. The step up one class (ClassMv:↑1) is a slight concern, but winning off the same mark (MarkMv:=) into a Class 5 handicap with only seven runners is far from daunting, and a 7-day turnaround from winning connections signals they believe the horse is in career-best form. Much's confirmed poor going record (GoingFit:-) on today's Good ground undermines the jolly's market position. Each-way alternative: Much. Main danger: Much — Much (SR:76, 7/4) is the clear market leader with Billy Loughnane booked and James Fanshawe's 19% yard strike rate behind it, and despite GoingFit:- the tongue-tie addition (HG:t) suggests connections are actively trying to unlock improvement that could neutralise the going concern.
Full result
Winner: Mr Moonshine (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mr Moonshine Fox #4 8/1
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2
Roker Roar 11/2
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3
Al Maslool Fox #3 9/1
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4
Fiefdom 33/1
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5
Much Fox #2 6/4
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6
Choir Boy 66/1
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7
Grand Pier Fox #1 2/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4