Southwell (AW) 17:35 RESULTED
Class 5 3 Sep 2026

Thursday 3 September Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap Stakes

Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap Stakes · 1m4f15y

Official Result

Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Mr Moonshine (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Richard & Peter Fahey
    100/30
  2. 15/2
  3. 9/1
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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 4 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Roker Roar silks
Roker Roar
Age 3 · 9-9
74-332
72
69
68
3
9-9
11/2 7/2 5/1
Winless in his last five starts, Roker Roar is hard to fancy on our figures with a ranking of sixth of seven, yet he does arrive in fair recent nick — placed three times in his last four outings — and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Much silks
Much
Age 3 · 9-8
87424
71
76
73
3
9-8
6/4 7/4 3/2
Winless in his last five starts, Much nonetheless shaped with promise when second two starts back, and he returns here after 27 days carrying 134 lb with experience of today's trip and going in his favour — our figures suggest he holds strong claims.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Fiefdom silks
Fiefdom
Age 3 · 9-7
6540
70
38
62
3
9-7
33/1 18/1 33/1
Winless in his last four starts and ranked last on our figures, Fiefdom faces a stiff ask here, though he has run over today's going before and 59 days off may have left him freshened up.
AI verdict

SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

4
Al Maslool silks
Al Maslool
Age 3 · 9-5
502314
68
77
76
3
9-5
9/1 13/2 17/2
Al Maslool arrives here as the top-rated runner in the field, and his win two starts back — combined with experience over today's trip and going — makes him a genuine threat at 131 lb; the risk is that he was only fourth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Mr Moonshine silks
Mr Moonshine
Age 3 · 9-3
4-5233
66
75
72
3
9-3
8/1 FCST 13/2
Consistent without a win in recent starts, Mr Moonshine has finished third, third, and second in his last three outings and returns on a fresh 21-day break having run over today's trip; the risk is that his rating of 72 leaves him with plenty still to prove against the top-rated runner.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Choir Boy silks
Choir Boy
Age 3 · 8-13
55-47
62
40
68
3
8-13
66/1 20/1 66/1
Winless in his last four starts, Choir Boy nevertheless showed some ability with a fourth two runs back, and has run over today's trip and going before; the 125 lb burden and a modest official mark of 62 make progress hard to find from mid-division.
AI verdict

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

7
Grand Pier silks
Grand Pier
Age 3 · 8-13
4-0621
62
79
73
3
8-13
2/1 31/19 32/17
Grand Pier arrives on the back of a win last time out and a close second before that, giving him a strong head of steam heading into this; carrying 125 lb on going he has experience of, the main risk is the patchy form shown before those two runs.
AI verdict

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Roker Roar 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 open 4.50 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 open 5.00 11/2 Bet365
2 Much 6/4 open 3.75 13/8 open 2.88 13/8 open 2.75 13/8 open 2.75 13/8 open 2.75 13/8 open 2.75 13/8 Paddy Power
3 Fiefdom 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 Bet365
4 Al Maslool 9/1 open 8.00 17/2 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 Bet365
5 Mr Moonshine 8/1 7/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 8.00 15/2 open 8.00 7/1 13/2 8/1 Bet365
6 Choir Boy 66/1 open 29.00 66/1 open 21.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 Bet365
7 Grand Pier 2/1 open 2.63 15/8 open 3.50 2/1 open 3.50 2/1 open 3.50 15/8 open 3.50 15/8 open 3.50 2/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Grand Pier

Speculative

Grand Pier owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

2/1 Warren Greatrex Harry Vigors(5)
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Much

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/4 · James Fanshawe
✓ Value Signal

Choir Boy

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Antony Brittain
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.0 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Grand Pier
55.7 2/1
2 2. Much
53.8 6/4
3 5. Mr Moonshine
49.6 8/1
4 1. Roker Roar
49.0 11/2
5 4. Al Maslool
47.9 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Grand Pier
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 3 · 9-8
6/4
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 8-13
2/1
★★★☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 3 · 9-9
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-3
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-5
9/1
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Grand Pier
Confidence: Speculative

Grand Pier (SR:79, 5/2) holds the highest SR in the field and arrives on the back of a last-time-out win (form reads 4-0621, rightmost = 1), with the market gently shortening 6% to confirm stable confidence. At 8-13 he carries the joint-lightest weight, giving him a meaningful lbs advantage over Much (9-8) and Roker Roar (9-9) despite a narrow SR edge — the combination of top SR plus bottom weight is the strongest structural edge in this field. The step up one class (ClassMv:↑1) is a slight concern, but winning off the same mark (MarkMv:=) into a Class 5 handicap with only seven runners is far from daunting, and a 7-day turnaround from winning connections signals they believe the horse is in career-best form. Much's confirmed poor going record (GoingFit:-) on today's Good ground undermines the jolly's market position. Each-way alternative: Much. Main danger: Much — Much (SR:76, 7/4) is the clear market leader with Billy Loughnane booked and James Fanshawe's 19% yard strike rate behind it, and despite GoingFit:- the tongue-tie addition (HG:t) suggests connections are actively trying to unlock improvement that could neutralise the going concern.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Harry Vigors has a 12% strike rate but only 243 rides; at Southwell AW specifically his record may be thin — limited big-race experience on this surface is a live concern.
  • Form reads 4-0621: the '0' and '6' are very recent poor runs; the last-time-out win came from a low base and may flatter — this horse has been inconsistent rather than progressive.
  • Class rise into a Class 5 handicap after winning a Class 6, combined with Al Maslool (SR:77, Haggas 21%) carrying only 9-5 and stepping up in mark (+2), represents a competitive threat that narrows G…
  • A 7-day turnaround on Fibresand/AW at Southwell is a quick bounce; if the LTO win took physical effort, residual fatigue on a demanding all-weather surface is a specific fitness risk here.
Shortlist Grand Pier, Much, Al Maslool, Mr Moonshine
Each-way: Much Danger: Much

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m4f15y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade