← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Juddmonte Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qual) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Pure Mint
MEDIUM Advised 4/6 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Pure Mint (SR:154, 4/6) is the standout on raw ability, sitting 9 SR points clear of the next-best Brushstroke (SR:149) and a full 9 points ahead of Does Mary Know (SR:145). Crucially, the market has backed that judgement with a 10% inward move from opening price, confirming strong professional confidence behind the Crisford/Doyle combination — a yard running at 19% strike rate paired with a jockey at 18%. The class rise of two tiers is the only flag, but a SR of 154 in a Class 2 novice field of this calibre suggests the horse is well within its ability range, and the single winning run already on the board gives a concrete form anchor. At 4/6 the price is short but the case is not built on price alone — SR, market trajectory, and connections all point the same way. Each-way alternative: Brushstroke. Main danger: Brushstroke — Brushstroke (SR:149, 7/1) carries the lightest weight in the field at 8-10, giving it a meaningful 14lb advantage over Pure Mint at 9-10, and its placed debut form represents a genuine ability ceiling that could bridge the 5-SR gap if today's step up in class suits.
Full result
Winner: Nobelos (IRE) at SP 33/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nobelos 33/1
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2
Brushstroke Fox #2 17/2
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3
War Chest 33/1
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4
Soldier Of The Sea 4/1
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5
Storm Force Ten 33/1
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6
Pure Mint Fox #1 8/13
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7
Does Mary Know Fox #3 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3