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Goffs Yorton Sale 10th September Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Thickthorn Tom
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Thickthorn Tom (SR:118, 13/8) arrives with a blazing form line of 212111 — four consecutive wins capped by a most recent victory just 8 days ago, showing peak freshness rather than staleness. Despite stepping up two class tiers (ClassMv:↑2), the Skelton operation (trainer 21%, jockey 27%) is among the most powerful in jump racing and routinely targets horses in progressive form at class rises; the stable would not run this horse 8 days after a win without believing it can compete here. The weight of 10-9 is a full stone lighter than top-weight Sure Touch (12-0, SR:124) and 7lb lighter than Tamarind Bay (11-9, SR:122), both of whom carry materially more ability-adjusted burden. GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles good ground, and the market at 13/8 reflects strong confidence despite the class rise — this is a yard that attacks with their best, not their second-string. Each-way alternative: Regal Renaissance. Main danger: Tamarind Bay — Tamarind Bay (SR:122, 9/4) carries the second-lowest weight in the field at 11-9 with recent back-to-back wins (Form:23-11U) and a competent Bowen stable combination, though the 28% market drift and MarkMv:+5 above last winning mark are genuine red flags that the market has already assessed and dismissed.
Full result
Winner: Tamarind Bay (IRE) at SP 5/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tamarind Bay Fox #2 5/2
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2
Thickthorn Tom Fox #1 13/8
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3
Sure Touch 7/1
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4
Homme Public 16/1
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5
Presentandcounting 11/1
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Regal Renaissance Fox #3 5/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3