← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Jer Batt
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Jer Batt (SR:86, 3/1) is the clear class leader in this field, with an SR 4lb ahead of the next-best Lipsink (SR:82) and a full 8lb clear of the SR median. Crucially, he carries 9-12 which is manageable, and his GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ confirm he handles soft ground at this trip — the two most critical variables on a Haydock 5f soft surface. His form 7-7334 shows consistent placing, Course:W0P2 proves he handles Haydock, and the market has firmed 5% into 3/1, suggesting informed support. Trainer Barron (8%,164) is modest in strike rate but jockey Callum Rodriguez (17%,699) is a genuine class act and his booking here is significant. Each-way alternative: Creative Queen. Main danger: Creative Queen — Creative Queen (SR:76, 6/1) is trained by William Haggas (21% strike rate, 1,134 runners) with Cieren Fallon (19%) aboard — elite connections stepping her up a class with blinkers first-time, and her form 217732 shows consistent involvement; at a light 9-4 she gets a meaningful weight advantage over Jer Batt's 9-12, which on soft ground could prove decisive.
Full result
Winner: Boston Dan (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Boston Dan 14/1
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2
Mighty Magnus 9/1
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3
Changeofmind 9/1
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4
Moonstone Boy 11/1
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5
Jer Batt Fox #1 11/4
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6
Creative Queen Fox #2 6/1
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7
Accrual 15/2
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8
Secret Mistral Fox #4 11/1
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9
American Bay 8/1
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10
Spoof 18/1
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11
Lipsink Fox #3 8/1
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—
Parisiac 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Jer Batt 3/1 5TH
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2
Creative Queen 6/1 6TH
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3
Lipsink 8/1 11TH
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4
Secret Mistral 12/1 8TH