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Mr Fox’s call
War Howl
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
War Howl (SR:73, 6/4) is clearly the class leader in this field by SR and the market has aggressively supported that view, steaming in 47% from its opening price. The recent form string 000097 looks ugly at first glance but the '7' last time represents a sharp improvement — a near-win finish that explains the market confidence — and the horse runs off a mark 4lb lower than its last win (MarkMv:-4), making the handicap mark accessible. Carrying just 9-6 as the second-lightest weight among the front-rank contenders gives it a genuine lbs advantage over Anthropologist (9-9, SR:69). The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are a genuine concern — the horse has not proven itself at this exact trip and going — but the market's 47% move in suggests connections are confident those concerns are manageable today. Each-way alternative: Jesmond Dawn. Main danger: Jesmond Dawn — Jesmond Dawn (SR:64, 12/1) has steamed in 24% in the market, boasts DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — the only runner besides Coramento proven at this trip and on this going — and its form includes a recent win (235150, reading right-to-left shows a '1' two runs back), making it a well-handicapped each-way threat that is clearly being backed by someone who knows.
Full result
Winner: Finn Ironside (GB) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Finn Ironside 7/1
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2
Anthropologist Fox #4 11/2
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3
War Howl Fox #1 6/4
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4
Coramento Fox #3 10/1
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5
Gressington 11/1
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6
Jesmond Dawn Fox #2 18/1
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7
Red Mirage 22/1
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8
Blazing Son 9/1
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9
Benacre 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
War Howl 6/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Jesmond Dawn 12/1 6TH
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3
Coramento 12/1 🏁 4TH
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4
Anthropologist 11/2 🥈 2ND