← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference & Events Venue Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Nyman
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 100/30F Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Nyman (SR:81, 7/2) has steamed in 25% from opening which is the most significant market move in this field and strongly suggests stable/market confidence. Despite stepping up one class (ClassMv:↑1), a mark that has dropped 8lb since last win (MarkMv:-8) gives him a compelling weight advantage — carrying only 8-13 against rivals rated similarly or higher on heavier weights. At 4 years old he is the youngest and potentially most progressive horse in the race, and Roger Fell/Joanna Mason (both 11% strike rates) represent a competent northern combination. The distance record (DistFit:-) is a concern but the 25% market move suggests connections believe he handles the step to 7f. Each-way alternative: Obelix. Main danger: Obelix — Obelix (SR:81, 11/4) is the joint-highest rated horse, carries proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), is ridden by Jason Hart who leads this field with a 14% career strike rate, and at 11/4 represents the market's preferred option — if Nyman's distance questions prove valid, Obelix is best placed to capitalise.
Full result
Winner: Nyman (IRE) at SP 100/30F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Nyman Fox #1 10/3
-
2
Midnight Strike 12/1
-
3
Capital Guarantee Fox #4 8/1
-
4
Obelix Fox #2 11/4
-
5
Fiscal Policy 8/1
-
6
Packetofbiscuits 33/1
-
7
Imperial Guard 8/1
-
8
Stanley Spencer 33/1
-
—
Mr King Fox #3 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4