Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap

14:35 Navan Sat 05 Sep 2026 5f Good 19 runners

Mr Fox’s call

The Love Machine

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/1 Est. 22%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

The Love Machine (SR:45, 11/1, 8-12) carries the joint-lowest weight in the field, giving it a significant lbs advantage over the top-weights who all carry 10-0 or more. The standout signal here is the market move: a 34% inward drift from opening price is the strongest market support in the entire field, suggesting stable confidence in a horse that recorded a '9' last time — an unexpected form spike — after a string of zeros. Trainer Sean Davis has designated this as the yard's #1 runner (Stable:1) over stablemate Agostino, which itself has shortened 7% but carries 10-2 — a 14lb weight disadvantage at comparable SR levels. At 11/1, the market probability (~8%) sits below my estimated 22%, reflecting a genuine overlay if the market move is informed money. Each-way alternative: Ballysax Lil' Mick. Main danger: Irish Rumour — Irish Rumour (SR:57, 11/2) has shortened 11% in the market, is the joint-highest SR on the shortlist, has recent form (Days:14) showing competitive finishes, and apprentice Orla Tynan's 15% strike rate is strong for a claiming rider — if the DistFit:- concern is overstated by a single bad run, it represents a serious threat.

Verify· #16209

Full result

Winner: Irish Rumour (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.