← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Par Inn Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Edelak
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/11 SP 11/10F Est. 45%
Mr Fox says
Edelak (SR:129, 10/11) is the class leader in this small field, carrying top-weight at 12-0 but boasting the most consistent recent form — a 2111F1 sequence shows five finishes in the frame from six starts with only a mid-sequence fall to explain. Crucially, DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven ability over today's exact trip and going conditions, and the Dan/Harry Skelton combination (21%/27% strike rates from substantial sample sizes of 1,234 and 713 runners respectively) is one of the most reliable in British jumping. The MarkMv:+6 is a mild negative — running 6lb higher than the last win — but in a four-runner Class 3 field where the next-best SR is Arctic Voyage at 125, the SR gap and superior connections overcome that concern. The weight burden at 12-0 on Good ground is manageable and does not constitute the soft-ground penalty that would flip the verdict. Each-way alternative: Arctic Voyage. Main danger: Arctic Voyage — Arctic Voyage (SR:125, 11/4) carries 8lb less than Edelak, boasts an outstanding course record of W2P3 at Newton Abbot, and DistFit:+ / GoingFit:+ confirm equal suitability to today's conditions — at 11/4 with a trainer strike rate of 16% from a small but active yard, the weight-for-SR trade-off makes this the one most likely to overturn the favourite.
Full result
Winner: Edelak (IRE) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Edelak Fox #1 6/5
-
2
Ellerton Fox #3 3/1
-
3
Arctic Voyage Fox #2 9/4
-
4
War Correspondent 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3