← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Grandad Swales Happy 80th Birthday Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Jetty May
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Jetty May (SR:87, 7/2) carries the Paul Nicholls yard stamp — a 17% strike rate from 46 runners is elite-level for a conditional jockeys' handicap chase at Class 5 — and the market has steamed in 21% from opening, signalling informed support. The form string 601-4P reads as mixed but the P (pulled up) is the most recent run and likely explains the 76-day break and gear change to tp (tongue-tie plus cheekpieces); a freshened horse from a top stable with significant money behind it at this level is a compelling package. Crucially, My Cullen (top-weight 12-0) has proven DistFit:- and GoingFit:- making 12st on good ground over 2m4f a near-impossible ask, while Mr McWhinny (SR:90, 2/1, MarkMv:+5) has drifted a concerning 29% from opening and also returns DistFit:-. Jetty May at 7/2 with the Nicholls money behind it is the value call in a weak five-runner field. Each-way alternative: Mcgregors Charge. Main danger: Mr McWhinny — Mr McWhinny holds the joint-highest SR (90) in the field, trainer T Ellis runs at a 19% strike rate from a small yard which suggests careful placing, and despite the market drift and DistFit:- concern, a recent run 19 days ago keeps him race-sharp — if the trip proves less of an issue than the record suggests, he has the raw ability to win.
Full result
Winner: Mr Mcwhinny (IRE) at SP 5/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mr McWhinny Fox #2 15/8
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2
My Cullen 17/2
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3
Jetty May Fox #1 7/2
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4
Mcgregors Charge Fox #3 9/4
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Hatos 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3