← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Cavani Sartorial Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Lauralynn
MEDIUM Advised 3/1 SP 5/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Lauralynn (SR:74, 3/1) is the clear class standout in this field — her SR of 74 is comfortably the highest, sitting 8 points above the next-best Sable Island (SR:66). Crucially, she carries just 9-8 and holds a DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ advantage, meaning she has a proven winning record at this trip and on this going surface — unique among all 11 runners. Her form string 321732 shows consistent competitiveness, and the market has already moved 12% in her favour, confirming stable confidence. Trainer Declan Carroll at 10% strike rate is modest but the jockey booking and market support suggest this is a yard that believes today's conditions suit. Each-way alternative: Sable Island. Main danger: Sable Island — Sable Island (SR:66, 13/2) has steamed in 43% in the market — the biggest move in the field — and carries a favourable 9-5 weight, suggesting connections believe the class drop (↓1) and fresh legs after 21 days unlocks a better performance, even if the DistFit:- and GoingFit:- readings are concerns to manage.
Full result
Winner: Lauralynn (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lauralynn Fox #1 9/2
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2
Chianti 11/2
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3
Cavan Lady 17/2
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4
Calef 5/1
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5
Lady Of Hay 10/1
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6
Trust Havana 20/1
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7
Sable Island Fox #2 6/1
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8
Time And Effort 12/1
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9
Good Fighter 16/1
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10
Le Ciel Noble 14/1
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11
Crystal Kraken Fox #3 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lauralynn 3/1 SP 5/1 🏆 WON
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2
Sable Island 13/2 7TH
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3
Crystal Kraken 9/2 11TH