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Mr Fox’s call
Ocastle Des Mottes
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 SP 7/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ocastle Des Mottes (SR:121, 9/4) is trained by W P Mullins (21% career strike rate, 1319 runners) with Paul Townend aboard at a remarkable 29% career strike rate — the strongest connections pairing in this field by some margin. The market has moved aggressively in its favour, shortening 20% since opening, which is a significant steamer signal that the powerful Mullins yard is confident. While the SR of 121 is modest, this is a beginners' steeplechase at €7,800 prize money where raw ability ratings are compressed and form over fences at this novice level is limited across the board — connections quality and market intelligence become decisive differentiators. The form string 5/4-P2 shows a horse returning from a break that has run into a place recently, and Townend at 29% does not ride casual entries. Each-way alternative: Ndaawi. Main danger: Ndaawi — Ndaawi carries the highest SR in the field at 141 — well clear of any rival — trained by Gordon Elliott (15%, 1781 runners) with proven GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, and despite drifting 14% in the market the underlying ability level means any step forward from its last run (which featured first-time hood 'p') could make it unbeatable.
Full result
Winner: Ocastle Des Mottes (FR) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ocastle Des Mottes Fox #1 7/4
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2
Mongibello Fox #4 8/1
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3
Polepatrick 18/1
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4
Ndaawi Fox #2 13/8
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5
Daydream Nation 13/2
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—
Captain Ryan Matt Fox #3 3/1
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William Tell 12/1
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Feet On The Ground 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ocastle Des Mottes 9/4 SP 7/4 🏆 WON
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2
Ndaawi 9/4 🏁 4TH
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3
Captain Ryan Matt 3/1
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4
Mongibello 13/2 🥈 2ND