← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Deanta Fire Door Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Albegone
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Albegone (SR 62, 11/2) shares top SR honours with Cotai Starlight but carries 9-8 versus Cotai Starlight's 9-9 and arrives on the back of a last-time-out win (form 372651, rightmost digit = 1), giving it the strongest recent momentum in the field. Tim Easterby's yard operates at 9% strike rate across 2,102 runners — a volume operation that knows how to place horses, and the horse is only up 2lb on its winning mark (MarkMv:+2), a manageable rise at this level. GoingFit:~ confirms it handles cut in the ground adequately, and the moderate distance record (DistFit:~) is not a red flag at 5f. Cotai Starlight is the obvious danger but has drifted 5% in the market and is running off a mark 5lb higher than its last win, making Albegone the marginally preferred choice at the same price. Each-way alternative: Never Dark. Main danger: Cotai Starlight — Cotai Starlight shares the joint-top SR of 62, has run recently (13 days ago), and Sam James at 14% strike rate is a quality booking, though the +5lb mark rise and 5% market drift are the only negatives holding it just behind Albegone.
Full result
Winner: Solid Bond (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Solid Bond 17/2
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2
Albegone Fox #1 15/2
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3
Cotai Starlight Fox #2 9/2
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4
Bust A Moon 22/1
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5
Royal Duke Fox #4 13/2
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6
Opal Storm 14/1
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7
Never Dark Fox #3 11/2
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8
Bibendum 6/1
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9
Midnight Lir 10/1
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10
Cape Sovereign 25/1
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11
Go Victor 14/1
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12
Kyber Crystal 12/1
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—
Pivotal Terms 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Albegone 11/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Cotai Starlight 11/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Never Dark 7/1 7TH
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4
Royal Duke 7/1 5TH