← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Unibet Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Lex Victoria
MEDIUM Advised 5/6 SP 6/5F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Lex Victoria (SR 158, 5/6) is the clear standout on ability — an 8-point SR lead over the next-best Pink Larkspur (SR 151) and 13+ points over everyone else. The market has backed it in a further 14% since opening, reflecting strong stable and public confidence behind the Crisford/Murphy combination, who both carry strong strike rates (20% and 21% respectively). Carrying 9-9 versus 9-2 for the rest is a 7lb weight disadvantage, but at this SR level in a Class 3 fillies' novice, the ability gap makes that manageable. The ClassMv:↓1 drop in grade is another positive — this filly is running in a softer race than her last outing and her sole run produced a win. Each-way alternative: Pink Larkspur. Main danger: Pink Larkspur — Pink Larkspur (SR 151, 9/2) is trained by the powerful John & Thady Gosden yard (25% strike rate) with William Buick aboard (21%), a combination that regularly debuts horses to win, and her SR of 151 makes her the only runner within realistic striking distance of Lex Victoria on ability.
Full result
Winner: Lex Victoria (IRE) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lex Victoria Fox #1 4/6
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2
Pink Larkspur Fox #2 6/1
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5
Dreamology Fox #3 4/1
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6
Floral 18/1
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Isabella Of Aragon 50/1
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Sioux Empress 11/1
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State Of America 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lex Victoria 5/6 SP 6/5F 🏆 WON
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2
Pink Larkspur 9/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Dreamology 5/1 5TH