← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Ladies Day
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ladies Day (SR:119, 3/1, 11-2) presents the strongest multi-signal case. A recent form string of 2-1-1-4 shows consistent progression, with consecutive wins before a latest run that may simply reflect a rise in class or trip — she now runs at the same class (ClassMv:=) and MarkMv:+3 is a modest rise suggesting the handicapper hasn't overreacted. At 11-2, she carries 10lb less than top-weight Loriko, a tangible advantage on good ground over 2m3f. Trainer T Ellis (21% strike rate from a sharp 38-runner sample) and jockey Jack Andrews (21%) both punch above their yard size, and GoingFit:+ confirms the going poses no concern. Loriko's 16% market drift is a meaningful red flag — money has moved away from the market leader — which only strengthens the case for Ladies Day at 3/1. Each-way alternative: Glory And Honour. Main danger: Loriko — Loriko (SR:124, the field's highest-rated runner) carries the form sequence 1-1-2-1 showing genuine ability, and Dan/Harry Skelton is a formidable combination — the 16% drift is the main concern but if it reflects a market over-reaction to the weight burden rather than inside information, that SR:124 at the top of this modest field could prove decisive.
Full result
Winner: Loriko (FR) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Loriko Fox #2 5/2
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2
Ladies Day Fox #1 5/2
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3
Glory And Honour Fox #3 4/1
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4
Skyjack Hijack 4/1
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5
Ballygeary 13/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3