← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish EBF Auction Series Race
Mr Fox’s call
Zoar
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Zoar (SR:77, 15/8) leads this modest six-runner field on ability and has the most credible form line — a debut second followed by a win (Form:21, rightmost=last) showing clear progression in just 17 days, suggesting peak freshness. The Donnacha/Aidan O'Brien connection brings stable firepower rarely seen in a €16k auction heat at Cork, and Paddy Harnett's booking at this level is consistent with the yard fielding a live chance. The 5lb weight concession to The Scallionator matters but is offset by a superior SR (77 vs 103 is misleading — The Scallionator's SR advantage is undercut by a DistFit:- flag at 6f, having contested 6 races at varying trips without proving the distance). Fighting Tears (9/4) has drifted 12% and carries 8-13, but its sole run win leaves the form unverified in company; Zoar's two-run sequence showing improvement is a stronger evidence base. Each-way alternative: Fighting Tears. Main danger: The Scallionator — The Scallionator's SR:103 is the highest in the field by a significant margin and its 13/8 market price is tight, suggesting punters are less concerned about the DistFit:- flag than the analysis warrants — if the 6f trip proves unproblematic on the day, it has the raw ability to prevail.
Full result
Winner: The Scallionator (IRE) at SP 4/7F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
The Scallionator Fox #2 6/4
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2
Nation Blaze 50/1
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3
Zoar Fox #1 2/1
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4
Eyeconic 40/1
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5
Belle Parvenue 40/1
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—
Fighting Tears Fox #3 2/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Zoar 15/8 🥉 3RD
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2
The Scallionator 13/8 SP 4/7F 🏆 WON
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3
Fighting Tears 9/4