← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Business Pilot Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Arbaawy
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Arbaawy (SR:79, 11/2) has steamed in 30% in the market — the strongest move in the field — and combines that with a class drop (↓1), proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), and a 3yo profile from a yard (John Butler, 13%) that punches above its weight in handicaps when market-confident. The SR of 79 ties Wild Dahlia at the top of this Class 5 field, and the weight of 9-9 is manageable. The form string 433403 shows consistency without a recent win, but the class relief and aggressive market move suggest connections expect that to change here. The key edge over Wild Dahlia is that 30% steam versus Wild Dahlia's 7% — smarter money is landing on Arbaawy. Each-way alternative: Mayaada. Main danger: Wild Dahlia — Wild Dahlia (SR:80, 9/2) is the joint top-rated horse in the field, drops a class from a Haggas yard with Cieren Fallon booked — a powerhouse combination — and has a proven distance record, making her entirely capable of turning the tables if the market's modest 7% steam understates the stable's intent.
Full result
Winner: Likeness (IRE) at SP 25/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Likeness 28/1
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2
My Old Mate 17/2
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3
Fizzy Bear 20/1
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4
Wild Dahlia Fox #2 9/2
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5
Island Bear 10/1
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6
Arbaawy Fox #1 10/3
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7
Sail On Sailor 12/1
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8
Mayaada Fox #3 4/1
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9
Eastern Veil 16/1
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10
Royal Bodyguard 11/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Arbaawy 11/2 6TH
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2
Wild Dahlia 9/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Mayaada 4/1 8TH