← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
My Maria
HIGH Advised 3/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
My Maria (SR 92, 3/1) is the standout on every meaningful metric in this field. Her SR of 92 is the highest by 14 points over the next-best runners, placing her comfortably above the pack in a competitive handicap range. The form string 432221 shows a horse who has been consistently improving, finishing second on her last two outings before presumably winning most recently — a progressive profile exactly what you want in a nursery. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's good ground at Lingfield, DistFit:+ confirms she handles 6f1y, and a market move of in13% on top of a 3/1 price signals genuine confidence from connections and punters alike. Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate, 2958 career rides) is a high-quality booking who rarely takes rides without purpose. The ClassMv:= means she's not being asked to step up in class, and the slight MarkMv:+2 is a negligible penalty for a horse with this SR advantage. Each-way alternative: Trust Yourself. Main danger: Location Location — Location Location (SR 78, 13/2) has shortened 6% in the market, DistFit:+ confirmed over this trip, and a James Fanshawe yard running at 18% gives the 42-day break horse a plausible angle if the rest has sharpened her up.
Full result
Winner: Location Location (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Location Location Fox #3 7/1
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2
Horndean 5/2
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3
Arabica Queen 22/1
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4
Sea Palace 25/1
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5
My Maria Fox #1 3/1
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6
Sultan Darius Fox #4 17/2
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7
Rex Regum 11/1
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8
Holi Scarlett 16/1
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9
Greek Street 40/1
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10
Frumoasa 33/1
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11
Trust Yourself Fox #2 6/1
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12
Lady Rosalind 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
My Maria 3/1 5TH
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2
Trust Yourself 6/1 11TH
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3
Location Location 13/2 SP 11/2 🏆 WON
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4
Sultan Darius 15/2 6TH