← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
O'NEILLS.COM Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Lohengrin
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Lohengrin (SR:50, 5/2) is the market's second choice but carries only 10-5 — 9lb less than top-weight Reponse Finale — and crucially holds the best jockey booking in the race with Colin Keane (16% career strike rate, 2279 runners), the standout rider in this field by some margin. The MarkMv:-9 signals a significant drop from the mark of the last win, giving a genuine handicap edge, and while DistFit and GoingFit are both flagged negative, every runner in this field shares those concerns, making the negatives field-wide noise rather than a specific disadvantage. The form string 000873 shows a '3' most recently — placing at this level — suggesting a horse on an upward curve, and at 5/2 the market is backing the Keane booking hard enough that we should follow. Each-way alternative: Movin And Groovin. Main danger: I'm Spartacus — I'm Spartacus (SR:45, 10/1) is the standout market mover — steaming in 19% — carrying only 10-4 with MarkMv:-5 and a trainer Adrian McGuinness who finds winners from handicap types; that level of late money on a 10/1 shot in a 13-runner field demands respect.
Full result
Winner: Chavajod (GB) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Chavajod 25/1
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2
Lohengrin Fox #1 3/1
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3
Brains 11/1
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4
Reponse Finale Fox #2 7/2
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5
I'm Spartacus Fox #4 10/1
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6
Saith Seren 20/1
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7
Movin And Groovin Fox #3 7/2
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8
Barretstown 18/1
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9
Roman Harry 7/1
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10
Amanirenas 12/1
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—
Marambo 33/1
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Perfect Judgement 8/1
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—
Medieval Night 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lohengrin 5/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Reponse Finale 7/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Movin And Groovin 5/1 7TH
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4
I'm Spartacus 10/1 5TH