← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Neaves & Co EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Donna Beauty
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 SP 7/4F Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Donna Beauty (SR 152, 5/2) holds the clearest SR advantage in this field by a meaningful margin — 3 points clear of The Thinking Man (SR 149) and 5 clear of Water Angel (SR 147) — and crucially drops three class tiers (ClassMv:↓3) into a Class 5 novice stakes, which is a significant opportunity for Charlie Johnston's yard. The 43-day break since last run is mitigated by the first-time hood (HG:h), which Johnston's team have applied deliberately and often signals a sharpened juvenile. Connor Beasley (13%, 1615 career rides) is a solid booking, and the 9-2 weight is the lightest of the three market principals, giving a real lbs advantage over The Thinking Man on 9-7. The market has not drifted on her, holding at 5/2, which is consistent with quiet confidence rather than alarm. Each-way alternative: The Thinking Man. Main danger: The Thinking Man — The Thinking Man (SR 149, 6/1) has steamed in 69% in the market — the strongest move in the field — drops three class tiers, and Adrian Keatley's yard runs at 15%; the money clearly knows something that the current price does not yet fully reflect.
Full result
Winner: Donna Beauty (IRE) at SP 7/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Donna Beauty Fox #1 2/1
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2
Water Angel Fox #3 11/1
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3
The Thinking Man Fox #2 11/4
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4
Bearly Blue 5/2
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5
He's Readytorumble 17/2
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6
Pivotal Star 80/1
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7
North Coates 150/1
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8
Cracking Toast 50/1
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9
The Stony Baker 80/1
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Brewster 66/1
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Oxber Flyer 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3