← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
PKF Francis Clark Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Baldomero
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Baldomero (SR:88, 7/2, Wgt:9-8) is the standout pick built on multiple converging signals. The 32% market shortening is the strongest move in the field and suggests informed confidence — this is not passive drifting but active backing. A MarkMv:-10 means his current mark is 10lb below his last winning mark, giving him a significant handicap advantage over rivals running at or above their winning marks. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) into this Class 4 adds further ease, and at 9-8 he is well-treated on weight versus the top-weights. The GoingFit:- is the one caution — he has a poor record on this going bucket — but blinkers fitted (HG:b) and the aggressive market move suggest connections are confident he handles the conditions today. Each-way alternative: Tenbob Tommy. Main danger: Sergeant Pep — Sergeant Pep (SR:90, 5/1, Wgt:9-7) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries 1lb less than Baldomero, has a MarkMv:-3 (running below his winning mark), and is trained by the in-form Clive Cox (17% strike rate) with Rossa Ryan aboard — the GoingFit:- is a shared concern with Baldomero, but on pure ability metrics he is the most dangerous rival.
Full result
Winner: The Quiet Gent (IRE) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
The Quiet Gent 13/2
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2
Sergeant Pep Fox #2 4/1
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3
Supreme King 11/2
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4
Baldomero Fox #1 7/2
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5
Safari Dream 11/1
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6
Rare Change 7/1
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7
Tenbob Tommy Fox #3 11/2
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8
Padua 12/1
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Under The Twilight Fox #4 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4