Winning two of her last six starts and filling the runner-up spot three starts back, Under The Twilight arrives here fit on a 13-day turnaround, with experience of today's trip and conditions and a joint-top-ranked our rating of 88 to underline her claims; the worry is that eighth last time out.
Form last 6441218
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR88RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rare Change landed a winner four starts back and has experience of today's trip and going, with his 136 lb burden from stall 4 the main concern after three successive sevenths in recent starts.
Form last 6391777
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR83RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Supreme King won three starts back and has experience of today's trip and conditions, so the ingredients are there for a bold show off a sharp 13-day turnaround; the concern is that he has finished fifth and sixth in his two most recent outings.
Form last 6227156
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
85SR84RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Placed second last time out and third four starts back, The Quiet Gent has shown enough in recent starts to suggest a bold showing is possible, though winless in his last five and that mid-table ranking on ratings tempers expectations at 133 lb from stall six.
Form last 62385-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
76SR82RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Sergeant Pep is a consistent sort who has finished third, second, third, and second in four of his last five starts, yet remains winless in recent outings and will need to find that extra gear to go one better; he has run over today's trip and going before, returns fit on 13 days' rest, and carries 133 lb from stall seven.
Form last 66-2323
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR83RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Tenbob Tommy faces a stiff ask here, though he does arrive on the back of a placed effort last time and has run over today's trip before; two wins in his last five starts show he is capable, but the weight of 131 lb is a further concern.
Form last 68-1132
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR74RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked seventh of nine on our figures, Padua is hard to fancy despite being placed last time out and having run over today's trip; the 131 lb burden does him no favours either.
Form last 64-0493
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR80RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Safari Dream has won twice in his last three starts and returns after 21 days in decent nick, but ranked eighth of nine on our figures he faces a stiff ask against this field, and 130 lb is no assistance to his cause.
Form last 6175311
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR79RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Supreme King owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2David EvansPat Cosgrave
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tenbob Tommy
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Sheena West✓ Value Signal
Padua
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
12/1 · Hughie Morrison◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Baldomero (SR:88, 7/2, Wgt:9-8) is the standout pick built on multiple converging signals. The 32% market shortening is the strongest move in the field and suggests informed confidence — this is not passive drifting but active backing. A MarkMv:-10 means his current mark is 10lb below his last winning mark, giving him a significant handicap advantage over rivals running at or above their winning marks. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) into this Class 4 adds further ease, and at 9-8 he is well-treated on weight versus the top-weights. The GoingFit:- is the one caution — he has a poor record on this going bucket — but blinkers fitted (HG:b) and the aggressive market move suggest connections are confident he handles the conditions today.
Each-way alternative: Tenbob Tommy.
Main danger: Sergeant Pep — Sergeant Pep (SR:90, 5/1, Wgt:9-7) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries 1lb less than Baldomero, has a MarkMv:-3 (running below his winning mark), and is trained by the in-form Clive Cox (17% strike rate) with Rossa Ryan aboard — the GoingFit:- is a shared concern with Baldomero, but on pure ability metrics he is the most dangerous rival.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Baldomero's recent form reads 373694 — the '4' last time out is his best finish in six runs, suggesting he is struggling to fire consistently despite the favourable mark.
GoingFit:- is a confirmed poor record on today's going, not a minor quibble; connections adding blinkers to paper over this weakness is a red flag, not reassurance.
Sergeant Pep (SR:90, 5/1) and Tenbob Tommy (SR:90, 11/2) both carry higher Speed Ratings with Tenbob Tommy also showing a 28% market support — Baldomero is not the form pick in this field.
At age 8, Baldomero's MarkMv:-10 advantage may reflect a horse whose ability has genuinely declined to that mark rather than a well-handicapped improver; his win-form may belong to a different horse.
ShortlistBaldomero, Sergeant Pep, Tenbob Tommy, Under The Twilight