P&D Lydon Mares Beginners Steeplechase

17:40 Ballinrobe Fri 11 Sep 2026 2m7f6y Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Affinity Rock

SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 32%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Affinity Rock (SR:123, 2/1) is the second-highest rated horse in the field and the only runner with both a confirmed DistFit:+ and a competitive SR above 120. The form string 10-223 shows consistent placed efforts and a recent win, which is exactly what you want from a beginner chaser finding their feet. Trainer Cian Collins runs at 9% strike rate and jockey Carl Millar (5lb claim, 11%) adds value. The chief concern is GoingFit:? — no confirmed good-ground record — but at 2/1 the market is pricing this as the clear form pick, and SR:123 is a substantial edge over most of the field. Straight Home (SR:131) is the danger but carries DistFit:- which is a significant red flag over 2m7f. Each-way alternative: Straight Home. Main danger: Straight Home — Straight Home holds the highest SR in the field at 131, is trained by W P Mullins (26% strike rate, 2859 runners) with a Course:W1P1 record and GoingFit:+, meaning the only real question is the DistFit:- flag over this 2m7f trip — if the Mullins yard has schooled this mare specifically for the distance, the superior ability could override that concern.

Verify· #17264

Full result

Winner: Carried With Love (IRE) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Carried With Love Fox #3 Jonathan Sweeney · Aidan Kelly 2/1
2 Straight Home Fox #2 W P Mullins · Sean Cleary-Farrell(7) 2/1
3 Cooke's Lass Gordon Elliott · Kevin Sexton 20/1
4 Affinity Rock Fox #1 Cian Collins · Carl Millar(5) 2/1
5 Ad Caelum John Patrick Ryan · Alan O'Sullivan(5) 16/1
6 Giorgia Rose Emmet Mullins · Ricky Doyle 40/1
7 Cherry Red D M Christie · Ben Harvey 50/1
8 Survivors Sister Paul John Gilligan · Philip Donovan 33/1
— Joya Del Mar Dermot A McLoughlin · Alix Balfe(7) 28/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Affinity Rock 2/1 🏁 4TH
2 Straight Home 15/8 🥈 2ND
3 Carried With Love 10/3 SP 3/1 🏆 WON