← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Ladies Well
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Ladies Well (SR 90, 11/4) is the standout on ability, carrying 11-12 which is a significant 2lb edge over top-weight Il Silenzio (SR 87, 12-0) despite having a higher SR. The DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ flags confirm she is proven at today's trip and on good ground — the two most important conditional factors in a 2m7f handicap chase. Course:W1P1 at Ballinrobe adds further specialist appeal. Her recent form of -2U121 shows a horse in excellent current form, winning last time, and the U (unseated) can be set aside given the subsequent bounce-back wins. At 11/4 the market respects her, and while she has drifted slightly from a shorter price, the combination of top SR, proven distance and going credentials, and course form makes her a clear selection. Each-way alternative: Set The Tone. Main danger: Set The Tone — Set The Tone (SR 83, 15/2) carries a feather-light 10-5, has DistFit:+ confirming ability at this trip, and recent form of 0P2162 shows an improving profile — the low weight on good ground over a proven distance is a serious combination.
Full result
Winner: Swing Time (IRE) at SP 25/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Swing Time 25/1
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2
Mistyburn 9/1
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3
Il Silenzio Fox #3 5/1
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4
Ladies Well Fox #1 10/3
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5
Reve Inoui 18/1
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6
Las Brisas Boy 7/1
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7
Kilashee 22/1
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8
The Little Yank 10/1
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9
Three Tribes 40/1
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10
Tomas O Maille Fox #4 10/1
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11
Set The Tone Fox #2 10/1
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12
Not So Serious 28/1
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13
Fr Gilligansvoyge 13/2
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14
Zolpharine 20/1
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Hit The Frame 14/1
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Subset 40/1
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Walkmethroughit 14/1
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Island McCoo 8/1
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U Asking Me 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ladies Well 11/4 🏁 4TH
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2
Set The Tone 15/2 11TH
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3
Il Silenzio 4/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Tomas O Maille 10/1 10TH