John Madden & Sons (Pro-Am) Flat Race

19:10 Ballinrobe Fri 11 Sep 2026 2m0f24y Good 6 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Iron Sword

SPECULATIVE Advised 8/15 SP 6/5F Est. 52%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Iron Sword (SR 93, 8/15) is the clear class leader in a weak field — the SR advantage over the next-best rivals (Gaelic Seer SR 83, Le Grand Retour SR 81) is meaningful in a maiden bumper context where raw ability tends to dominate. The 4yo has actual form figures (5-3) giving it a run-fit edge over four completely unexposed rivals, and trainer Andrew Slattery's 11% strike rate combined with jockey Mr A P Ryan's 14% win rate from 253 rides is a competent professional pairing. The 8/15 market price reflects genuine confidence from the rails — short favourites in small bumper fields with an SR cushion convert at high rates. The weight parity at 11-3 across the board means no penalty advantage for rivals to exploit. Each-way alternative: Gaelic Seer. Main danger: Gaelic Seer — Gaelic Seer (SR 83, 8/1) carries 7lb less than Iron Sword at 10-10, has a jockey booking with a strong 20% career strike rate (Mr J L Gleeson), and being unraced means there is no ceiling established on its ability — it could be significantly better than its SR suggests.

Verify· #17282

Full result

Winner: Iron Sword (FR) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Iron Sword Fox #1 Andrew Slattery · Mr A P Ryan(5) 4/11
2 Le Grand Retour Peter Fahey · Mr H C Swan 5/1
3 Gaelic Seer Fox #2 John E & Thomas Kiely · Mr J L Gleeson 9/1
4 Real Lark Fox #3 John Patrick Ryan · Miss L Costello(7) 14/1
5 Reafadda John Patrick Ryan · Brian Barry(7) 50/1
— Walkineezy Denis Gerard Hogan · Mr D Doyle(7) 28/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Iron Sword 8/15 SP 6/5F 🏆 WON
2 Gaelic Seer 8/1 🥉 3RD
3 Real Lark 10/1 🏁 4TH