← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Alan Rae Smith Errant Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Affettuoso
SPECULATIVE Advised 1/6 SP 1/9F Est. 62%
Mr Fox says
Affettuoso (SR:89, 1/6) is the clear market leader and has been heavily backed in from its opening price, shortening 21% — the money is emphatic. Trained by Roger Varian (20% strike rate, 1381 runners — a yard that knows how to place horses) and ridden by Ray Dawson (14%, 1184 runners), the connections package is professional and purposeful. The SR of 89 is well below the 120+ workmanlike threshold, but in a field where two rivals have no form whatsoever at this trip (DistFit:?), one is rated just SR:35, and none have market support to speak of, Affettuoso's backing at 1/6 reflects its dominance by elimination rather than raw ability. The 3yo age allowance over this 1m4f trip, stepping up in class but paired with a trainer who understands progressive types, makes this a straightforward if unconvincing favourite. Each-way alternative: Electric Arc. Main danger: Electric Arc — George Boughey (18% strike rate) is a capable yard and Electric Arc ran in the same class last time out (ClassMv:=), giving it the most relevant recent experience in the field — if Affettuoso's form reading is wrong over this trip, Electric Arc at 18/1 is the most professionally-handled alternative.
Full result
Winner: Affettuoso (GB) at SP 1/9F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Affettuoso Fox #1 1/10
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2
Astrid Fox #3 16/1
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3
Electric Arc Fox #2 28/1
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4
Oneinthewell 14/1
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5
Lost In Wonder 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3