Alan Rae Smith Errant Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race) · 1m4f1y
SR 143 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 133 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oneinthewell | 14/1 open 6.50 | 11/1 open 9.00 | 12/1 open 8.50 | 12/1 open 8.50 | 12/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Lost In Wonder | 50/1 open 34.00 | 33/1 open 21.00 | 40/1 open 29.00 | 40/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Affettuoso | 1/10 open 1.57 | 1/9 open 1.33 | 1/20 open 1.44 | 1/20 open 1.44 | 1/12 open 1.44 | 1/11 open 1.44 | 1/9 Paddy Power |
| 4 Astrid | 16/1 open 5.00 | 11/1 open 5.00 | 12/1 open 6.00 | 12/1 open 6.00 | 16/1 open 5.00 | 11/1 open 5.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Electric Arc | 28/1 open 9.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 22/1 open 13.00 | 22/1 open 12.00 | 28/1 open 12.00 | 20/1 open 12.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Oneinthewell owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (79) and market confidence (36). There is still enough pricing upside to keep the pick from looking overexposed. The profile is live enough to win even with more instability in the simulation.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 143 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Affettuoso (SR:89, 1/6) is the clear market leader and has been heavily backed in from its opening price, shortening 21% — the money is emphatic. Trained by Roger Varian (20% strike rate, 1381 runners — a yard that knows how to place horses) and ridden by Ray Dawson (14%, 1184 runners), the connections package is professional and purposeful. The SR of 89 is well below the 120+ workmanlike threshold, but in a field where two rivals have no form whatsoever at this trip (DistFit:?), one is rated just SR:35, and none have market support to speak of, Affettuoso's backing at 1/6 reflects its dominance by elimination rather than raw ability. The 3yo age allowance over this 1m4f trip, stepping up in class but paired with a trainer who understands progressive types, makes this a straightforward if unconvincing favourite. Each-way alternative: Electric Arc. Main danger: Electric Arc — George Boughey (18% strike rate) is a capable yard and Electric Arc ran in the same class last time out (ClassMv:=), giving it the most relevant recent experience in the field — if Affettuoso's form reading is wrong over this trip, Electric Arc at 18/1 is the most professionally-handled alternative.