Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes (Group 3)

15:05 Doncaster Sun 13 Sep 2026 7f6y Class 1 Good 20 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Forty Years On

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 38%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Forty Years On (SR:117, 7/4) is the standout on every meaningful metric. The SR of 117 is the highest in the field by a clear margin over Touleen (SR:118 — wait, Touleen is 118 but carries 9-0 vs 9-4, giving Forty Years On a 4lb weight advantage in real terms). Actually Touleen at SR:118 is marginally higher, but Forty Years On at 9-4 versus Touleen at 9-0 means Forty Years On concedes 4lb — however the key differentiators are: Forty Years On's form reads 112-11, showing back-to-back wins most recently, while Touleen reads 5-2624 with no win in four runs. Forty Years On has Course:W1P1 at Doncaster (course specialist), DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ (proven at 7f on good ground), and the market has shortened 17% — strong professional money. George Scott (20% trainer strike rate) and Hector Crouch (19% jockey) are a sharp combination. The MarkMv:+9 is the only note of caution on a rising mark, but the step up in class (↑1) is mitigated by the form evidence and the going/course fit being ideal. Each-way alternative: The Prettiest Star. Main danger: Touleen — Touleen (SR:118, 5/2) carries the highest Saturday Rating in the field and 4lb less than Forty Years On, and trainer Owen Burrows boasts the field's best strike rate at 22% — though the form string 5-2624 shows no recent win and the GoingFit:? introduces real uncertainty on today's conditions.

Verify· #17571

Full result

Winner: Pina Sonata (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.