← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1)
Mr Fox’s call
Dr Rascal
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Dr Rascal carries the highest SR in the field at 127 — a clear 4-point advantage over the next-best Haffner (SR 123) — and has posted a perfect 111 form string, meaning three wins from three starts at this exact class level. The 26% market inward move is the most significant steaming signal in the field and suggests informed money has arrived since opening, despite a mark that has risen 16lb since his last win. At 10/3 he is not a cramped price, which means the market is paying for a genuine ability edge rather than sentiment. Oliver Cole's 11% strike rate is modest but Kaiya Fraser at 13% on 850 rides is a competent booking, and the distance fitness tick confirms he handles 7f. The principal concern is GoingFit:? — he has no confirmed record on today's good ground — but the same uncertainty applies to several rivals including Giant Sequoia and Folsom Blues. Each-way alternative: Giant Sequoia. Main danger: Giant Sequoia — Giant Sequoia (SR 119, 7/2) has won on the Curragh (Course:W1P2), is ridden by Ryan Moore — the field's most productive jockey at 24% career strike rate — and his 311 form line mirrors Dr Rascal's winning pattern, making him the most credible threat despite a 7% market drift.
Full result
Winner: Folsom Blues (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Folsom Blues 17/2
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2
Monogram Fox #4 2/1
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3
Florida Bay 12/1
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4
Trean 33/1
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5
Dr Rascal Fox #1 10/3
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6
Giant Sequoia Fox #2 9/2
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7
Haffner Fox #3 6/1
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8
Porto Vecchio 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4