← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Farasan
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Farasan (SR 151, 7/2) is the second-highest-rated runner in the field and brings the clearest evidence of ability, trained by the John & Thady Gosden yard (24% strike rate from 1,423 runners) and ridden by Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate from 2,669 rides) — the strongest jockey-trainer combination on the card by a considerable margin. The form figure of 64 on a step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is not alarming in a 2yo novice context where early runs rarely show true ceiling, and the Gosden yard routinely improves horses sharply between runs. Solar Swing holds the top SR at 152 but was also stepping up in class last time and is ridden by Jack Callan (14%), a clear booking downgrade relative to Murphy on Farasan. The 7/2 price on the Gosden-Murphy combination in a Class 3 novice represents genuine value and is the pick. Each-way alternative: Solar Swing. Main danger: Solar Swing — Solar Swing carries the highest SR in the field at 152, is from the in-form George Boughey yard (18% strike rate) and at 9/4 the market clearly respects its chance despite the class rise — it is entirely capable of reversing the form case if Farasan has not fully come on from a run just 12 days ago.
Full result
Winner: National Honour (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
National Honour Fox #3 15/8
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2
Solar Swing Fox #2 9/4
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3
Rupert The Brave Fox #4 11/2
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4
Farasan Fox #1 7/2
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5
Mainshock 66/1
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6
Intangible Truth 18/1
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7
Gut Reaction 33/1
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8
Kingdom Of Heaven 200/1
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9
Stephen's Secret 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4